With most of political debate focused on the EU referendum or most recently, the Panama papers, it’s easy to have missed some of the significant events or trends that have happened in politics over recent months. To help, PAC has picked out five things that you might not have noted…
A Tory Resurgence in Scotland
With only one MP in the whole of Scotland, you probably wouldn’t have given the Conservatives much hope going into this May’s Holyrood elections.
The chaos in the Scottish Labour Party has left a political vacuum that the Scottish Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson, appears to be filling. For one thing, she’s not your typical Tory: openly gay and straight talking, she has challenged the Westminster Government on a number of occasions, most notably over tax credits.
A recent poll for the Times asking voters who would be the most effective leader of the Opposition in the Scottish Parliament gave Ms Davidson 33% a significant lead over Labour’s Kezia Dugdale at 18%. Recent polls ahead of May’s election have shown that the Conservatives are projected to have more seats than Labour. If that were to be the case it would be an amazing turn around in the Party’s fortunes North of the border since the dramatic decline in support that started under Margaret Thatcher.
Race for London Gets Personal
In London, the Mayoral election has become a real street fight.
The language has started to get very personal with Team Goldsmith accusing his opponent of having links to extremists. Team Khan, and in particular Yvette Cooper, have hit back claiming that such accusations are a “full-blown racist scream.”
The launch of Goldsmith’s manifesto was somewhat side-tracked as he was forced to deny claims that he is a racist. He turned the tables arguing that Khan is “a man who has given platforms, oxygen and even cover — over and over and over again — to those who seek to do our police and capital harm.”
Polls show that Khan has a comfortable lead over Goldsmith, and in a left leaning city the smart money would be on him to win in May.
The Resurrection of Michael Gove
Disliked by teachers and side-lined to the role of Chief Whip before going to the MoJ after the election, Michael Gove’s political career might have been perceived as having peaked.
Instead, according to a recent survey by Conservative Home, he is the person that Conservative members most want to be their next leader. He has over taken both the previous front runners, George Osborne and Boris Johnson, and his position may be further strengthened if calls for him to be made Deputy Prime Minster are successful.
Whatever the outcome of the EU Referendum there will be much healing required in the Conservative Party and it is suggested that making Brexiteer Gove Deputy PM would make a major contribution to the process.
UKIP in Chaos
You would think that an imminent referendum on EU membership would unite UKIP behind the one issue in which they all unanimously agree. Think again.
Key figures such as Douglas Carswell and Suzanne Evans have joined the more mainstream campaign to leave the EU, Vote Leave, while the UKIP leader Nigel Farage has shared a platform with George Galloway by campaigning for the rival group Grassroots Out.
The fallout in UKIP has been made even more public as Suzanne Evans was given a six-month suspension for bringing the party into disrepute. One of the more capable and articulate of the party’s members, she claims to have been bullied.
It now appears quite possible that post-referendum, UKIP’s only MP, Carswell, will leave the party and sit as an Independent.
Corbyn More Popular Than Cameron
Just as the backbench sharks were getting ever more frenetic with their circling of the Labour Leader, saying that there will definitely be moves against him before the party conference in September, the latest opinion polls show that Jeremy Corbyn is now more popular than David Cameron and Labour is ahead of the Conservatives in voting intention.
This is a surprising turnaround for Corbyn, who only a few months ago had the worst satisfaction ratings of any new Labour leader and was the first to score a net negative satisfaction rating.
Whether this is enough to dampen down criticism of his leadership in the longer term will depend on Labour’s performance at the local, Mayoral and devolved elections, but recent events can only be helpful to the Party.
The Chancellor has delivered his annual Budget to Parliament. The main points of the statement were:
Osborne confirms that English schools will be “freed” from local authority control, and turned into an academy.
As London schools have been turned around, there will be a focus on turning around schools in the north.
- All pupils up to 18 may have to learn maths.
- A fairer schools funding formula will be introduced.
- Extra funding will be released to keep schools open longer.
- Every primary and secondary school is to be in the process of becoming an academy by 2020.
- An education white paper will be published tomorrow with more details.
- £115m to support homelessness.
The Chancellor confirmed plans to go ahead with HS3 from Manchester to Leeds, in addition to the announcement yesterday that Crossrail 2 will go ahead as part of the £27 billion rail upgrade which will create a link through the capital from north to south.
- Upgrades will be made to the A66 and the A69 in the North Pennines, and the M62 will be made into a four lane motorway. There will be a new tunnel road from Manchester to Sheffield.
- There will be a £13m contribution Hull City of Culture next year.
- An extra £700m for resilience and flood defences to be raised through a 0.5% increase in insurance premium tax.
- Go-ahead for flood schemes in York and Leeds amongst others.
- The Cathedral repairs fund extended by £20m and there will be a tax break for museums.
- 100% of local government resources will come from their own area by the end of the Parliament.
- Greater Manchester to get new powers over criminal justice.
- New devolution agreement with a mayor for East Anglia, the West of England and Greater Lincolnshire.
- Negotiations will be opened on city deals with Edinburgh and Swansea and there is a new £1bn deal for Cardiff city region.
- A Thames estuary commission will be established, to be led by Michael Heseltine.
Disability budget will rise by more than £1billion.
Energy and Climate Change
- Climate change levy will rise from 2019
- £730m in auctions to back renewable technologies
Savings and Pensions
- Public sector employer pension contributions to rise.
- New state-backed savings scheme for low-paid workers, worth up to £1,200 over four years.
- The Money Advice Service, which has provided financial advice to consumers since 2010, is to be abolished.
- ISA limit increased from just over £15,000 to £20,000 from April 2017.
- New Lifetime ISA for under-40s from April 2017. Can save up to £4,000 a year; government puts in £1 for every £4 saved and no tax paid when money withdrawn.
- New sugar levy on soft drinks to be introduced in 2018. There will be a consultation on its implementation.
- This sugar levy to raise £520m and the money will help to fund extending school days for wider activities that will be voluntary for schools but compulsory for pupils.
- Will raise £12bn over this Parliament through taking further steps to tackle tax avoidance and evasion, including moves to end the use of “personal services companies” by public sector employees to minimise their tax liabilities.
- Corporation tax –currently 20% – to be lowered to 17% by 2020.
- Tax reforms to close corporate tax loopholes and profit diversion schemes will raise £9bn from large firms.
- Threshold for small business rate relief will rise from £6,000 to £15,000 from April 2017.
- Threshold for higher rate of business rates will rise from £18,000 to £51,000.
- Supplementary Charge for oil and gas producers to be halved from 20% to 10%.
- Petroleum revenue tax to be “effectively abolished”.
- Greater London Authority (GLA) to retain all business rates from April 2017.
- ‘Tax break for the digital age’ – new £1,000 tax free allowance ‘to help micro-entrepreneurs’ selling services or renting their home online.
- Commercial stamp duty reform to come into effect from midnight; 0% rate on purchases up to £150,000, 2% on next £100,000 and 5% top rate above £250,000. New 2% rate for high-value leases with net present value above £5m.
- Class 2 National Insurance contributions scrapped for self-employed workers from April 2018.
- Capital Gains Tax basic rate cut from 18% to 10%. Higher rate cut from 28% to 20%.
- Entrepreneurs’ relief of 10% to be extended to long term external investment in unlisted companies.
- Tax free allowances employers and employees use for pensions advice increased to £500.
- Tax-free personal allowance to rise to £11,500 from April 2017.
- Higher rate of tax threshold to rise to £45,000 from April 2017.
- Fuel duty continues to be frozen.
- Beer and city duty frozen.
- Duty on whisky frozen.
- All other alcohol duties will rise by inflation at planned.
National debt as a share of GDP
In cash terms the national debt is lower than it was forecast to be, but so is the nominal size of the economy. This means that debt as a percentage of the GDP is higher. “When I became Chancellor we borrowed £1 in every £4 we spent – now it’s £1 in every £14”.
The new debt/GDP forecast means that the Chancellor has missed his target of starting to cut the national debt, as a percentage of output, this financial year. That now won’t happen until 2017-2018.
Public Sector Borrowing
- Public spending is due to hit 36.9% of GDP by end of the decade – the same as the government raises through taxation.
- Further spending cuts of £3.5bn by 2019/2020.
- The Chancellor promises that with his cuts “the country will be spending no more than the country raises in taxes” and he will do this whilst investing in services like the NHS.
- Figures out today from the Office for National Statistics show that employment is at the highest level ever. The proportion of people on out of work benefits is also at its lowest rate since November 1974.
- 2 million jobs were created during the course of the last Parliament with a further 1 million to be created over the course of this Parliament.
- 90% of the new jobs created since 2010 have been in skilled occupations, with three quarters being full time.
Analysis of Conservative MPs across the North of England shows that more will vote to leave the EU than stay, with Yorkshire backbenchers emphatically against staying.
At the time of writing, according to the ConservativeHome website, there are 149 Tory MPs for Remain, and 124 for Leave.
There has been some analysis of trends amongst those on the ‘payroll’ (Ministers, whips and Parliamentary Private Secretaries) and backbenchers. This shows, not surprisingly given that they have careers, that payroll MPs are heavily in favour of staying in the EU (84 for remain, 30 to leave) whereas more backbenchers, many of whom have given up any hope of a career, want to leave (65 for remain, 94 to leave).
There has also been some limited analysis according to the year of intake showing that the more recently an MP was elected, the more likely they are to be for Remain; again possibly reflecting their aspirations.
Looking at a regional breakdown, analysis shows that unlike the parliamentary party as a whole, more Conservative MPs in the North of England (Yorkshire and North Lincs, North West and North East) support leaving than staying: of the 44 Conservative MPs across the North, 15 want to stay in the EU and 16 want to come out, with 13 yet to declare their stance.
Within this cohort, 19 out of the 44 hold a government position, which at 43% is quite a bit higher than the proportion across the country as a whole with the overall payroll vote accounting for 35% of the Parliamentary party. Is that because Northerners are more able (obviously), or more thrusting (probably that as well)? This makes it all the more surprising that more Northern MPs are for out.
Within the Northern contingent of the payroll, of those that have declared, 12 are for remaining in while just 2 are for leaving and 5 have yet to say. There are no surprises there, but this means that the Northern backbenchers, with 14 being for out and only 3 for in, are a very anti-EU bunch, much more so than the backbenchers as a whole.
The figures are even starker for Yorkshire and North Lincs with only one solitary MP not on the payroll being in favour of Remain, and 8 against him in favour of Leave.
Is it because in Yorkshire they live up (or down) to the stereotype of thinking that nothing good ever comes out of anywhere other than God’s Own County, never mind ‘abroad’? Or is it that as true Tykes they are less likely to accept being told what to do, even by their Prime Minister?
*= Member of the ‘payroll’
Remain (1): Guy Opperman – Hexham*
Leave (2): Anne-Marie Trevelyan – Berwick-upon-Tweed; James Wharton – Stockton South*
Remain (8): Jake Berry – Rossendale and Darwen*; Graham Evans – Weaver Vale*; David Morris – Morecombe and Lunesdale*; David Mowat – Warrington South; George Osborne – Tatton*; Antoinette Sandbach – Eddisbury; Edward Timpson – Crewe and Nantwich *; Ben Wallace – Wyre and Preston North*.
Leave (5): Graham Brady – Altrincham and Sale West; Fiona Bruce – Congleton; Nigel Evans – Ribble Valley; David Nuttall – Bury North; William Wragg – Hazel Grove.
Undeclared (8): Chris Green – Bolton West; Seema Kennedy – South Ribble; Paul Maynard – Blackpool North and Cleveleys*; Mark Menzies – Flyde; Mary Robinson – Cheadle; David Rutley – Macclesfield*; John Stevenson – Carlisle; Rory Stewart – Penrith and the Border*.
Yorkshire & North Lincs
Remain (6): Kevin Hollinrake – Thirsk and Malton; Kris Hopkins – Keighley*; Andrew Jones – Harrogate and Knaresborough*; Alec Shelbrooke – Elmet and Rothwell*; Julian Smith – Skipton and Ripon*; Craig Whittaker – Calder Valley*.
Leave (8): Nigel Adams – Selby and Ainsty; Philip Davies – Shipley; David Davis – Haltemprice and Howden; Andrea Jenkyns – Morley and Outwood; Greg Knight – Yorkshire East; Jason McCartney – Colne Valley; Andrew Percy – Brigg and Goole; Martin Vickers – Cleethorpes.
Undeclared (5): Stuart Andrew – Pudsey*; Robert Goodwill – Scarborough and Whitby*; Graham Stuart – Beverley and Holderness; Julian Sturdy – York Outer; Rishi Sunak – Richmond.
2015 was one of the most eventful years in recent political memory. With a series of elections and a referendum on the horizon, PAC has picked out five things to look out for this year.
The Corbyn Effect
Jeremy Corbyn has the worst satisfaction ratings of any new Labour leader. In fact he is the first ever leader to score a net negative satisfaction rating.
Despite the negativity, Team Corbyn were buoyed by the Oldham by-election result in December which saw Labour easily see off the UKIP threat. Those hoping for his demise (a large part of the Parliamentary party) are looking to the May elections as their first real chance to unseat Corbyn.
Normally local elections go against the Government of the day and these are unlikely to be any different. Voters will ignore the Corbyn factor as he is not on the ballot paper and are likely to stick to the usual pattern of voting on local issues and generally against the Government.
All the polls point to a win by Sadiq Khan in London who is distancing himself from Corbyn. Although, given that Corbyn is more popular in London than anywhere else in the country, Khan will benefit from garnering both pro and anti Corbyn voters.
After the general election result, a majority for the SNP in Scotland is already discounted so sparing Corbyn the blame, although it might just be a bit uncomfortable if Labour’s share of the vote comes in behind the Conservatives.
Narrowing polls in Wales show that it is unlikely that Labour will be able to form a majority government. An alternative that has been suggested by the Welsh Secretary Stephen Crabb is a “rainbow coalition” of the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats, albeit this seems unlikely. How much Corbyn gets the blame if Labour’s vote slumps or whether this is blamed on a mixed record from the current administration is difficult to say.
All in all, Corbyn has not much to fear and with no leader for the anti Corbyn movement to unite around having emerged, he is pretty secure for this year at least.
David Cameron’s decision to suspend ministerial responsibility to allow his cabinet to campaign for Brexit echoes the decision made by Harold Wilson the last time there was a referendum.
Now expected in the summer, subject to an agreement in February, all the polls show that most people would vote to remain in the EU if the Prime Minister can secure change. With most leading politicians and business people supporting staying in, the fear factor applying and the innate conservativism of the British people, there isn’t a cat in hell’s chance of the vote going against staying in.
The Next Prime Minister
The Conservative leadership race is already underway with MPs being sent cuddly texts, invited to drinks parties and being congratulated on blowing their nose very eloquently by the contenders. It will continue to gather momentum this year, especially after the EU referendum. Some have counted as many as 11 possibles and the race is wide open. Osborne is by no means certain to win and neither is Boris, for different reasons. The prevailing thought is that it is likely to be someone not currently being seriously considered. Look out for Stephen Crabb, the bearded Welsh Secretary, whose name is being bandied around by Tory MPs. The last Tory leader with full facial hair was Lord Salisbury in 1902.
UKIP a Busted Flush
Fast running out of money and possibly about to lose its only MP, 2016 could mark the turn the tide for UKIP. Trounced in the Oldham by-election, although the 25% Asian vote and a popular Labour candidate didn’t help, the Party turned in on itself with hostilities breaking out between Douglas Carswell MP and Nigel Farage.
With the party executive united behind its Leader and somewhat sceptical of Carswell’s true allegiance to UKIP, it is possible that their only MP will leave the party and sit as an Independent. The latest posters he has printed for his office show no UKIP affiliation, maybe he has either seen the writing on the wall or his resignation letter is in the post.
UKIP’s salvation may come from disillusioned, traditional (non-croissant eating) Labour voters, especially in the North.
Yorkshire Devolution Deal
With just two months until the Budget deadline, the Chancellor will be hoping to secure a deal in Yorkshire.
The argument is still mainly between the Greater Yorkshire (all of the region apart from South Yorkshire) and Leeds City Region camps. It has become more muddied of late with the emergence of the possibility of Hull throwing its lot in with the LCR bid and business in Hull calling for a Hull/East Yorkshire separate devolved body. This is not popular with East Yorkshire which wants to go with North Yorkshire in the case of the LCR bid going through. Ferrets and sacks come to mind