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Category:

Europe

Triggering Article 50: What will the reaction from the EU be?

February 27, 2017Posted by PACin Europe

With just weeks to go before the notification to trigger Article 50 is expected, the official line from the EU institutions is that plans and staff are in place and Brussels and the EU27 are prepared. The EU Commission has a set of negotiation scenarios primed and believes that the EU will enjoy a home-field advantage as talks commence in Brussels. Publicly, all three institutions, the Commission, Council and Parliament, as well as the 27 other member states are firm that they have a joint position on how Brexit should unfold and what could be offered to the UK.

Yet, how long this line will hold remains to be seen. The novelty and multitude of actors on the EU side leaves much uncertainty remaining about how exactly the Article 50 process will unfold, and national political leaders at times, perhaps understandably considering major forthcoming elections in the Netherlands, France Germany, appear more focused on pleasing domestic audiences than reaching a European agreement.

Priorities

Michel Barnier, heading up the technical negotiations from the Commission, will face additional hurdles as he tries to lead the EU in the divorce proceedings compared with his opposite number, the Brexit Secretary David Davis. Mr Barnier’s mandate from the EU Heads of States, to be received during a special summit in April 2017, won’t prevent him having to regularly report back to ministers and political leaders for guidance and coordination whilst navigating the mine-field of 27 national interests.

From informal meetings and sources, we know that much of Mr Barnier’s initial focus will rest on agreeing the UK’s financial commitments and securing citizens’ rights. On the former, Mrs May’s spokesperson has confirmed that the final number will be up for discussion in formal talks, whilst on the latter issue, the British have similarly made clear their desire to secure reciprocal status. Failure to date on this front could hint at differences already beginning to show, not between Britain and the EU Commission, but among the Commission and some Member States.

What also appears clear from statements made already is that the priority in Brussels after the notification of Article 50 will be on securing key terms of the divorce before any talks on a future trade deal take place. Here, though, London’s approach to date seems to be to ignore this. Similarly, on timeframes, Mr Barnier perceives Mrs May’s 2 year deadline to be unrealistic, whilst Jean-Claude Juncker has said:  “I do not think…we will succeed within 24 months to clear up the arrangements for Britain’s exit from the EU and to (forge) the whole relationship between Britain and the European continent”. Both the UK government and UK companies might do well to prepare for the talks to take longer before any future trade relationships are agreed.

The difficult relation

And then there is also the EU Parliament, which while nominally only having a final yes-or-no vote on the deal, will be closely involved in the process to ensure that a final agreement is passed with MEPs. The Parliament has designated the extreme pro-Europe, Belgium Liberal Guy Verhofstadt as its lead negotiator. He will be supported by a group of experienced MEPs to provide the views of their respective political groups, and political group chairs and Committees will have input to ensure that the Parliament’s view is reflected in the EU Commission’s negotiation approach. This leaves plenty of room for misunderstandings, political maneuvering and general dissent within the EU, and one does not have to look far to find it. Perhaps the words of the influential German MEP Manfred Weber most clearly demonstrate that the EU’s biggest challenge in this divorce may just come from within:

“Frankly speaking there is a mandate from the European Commission for Michel Barnier, but not a mandate from the European Parliament … When I have a look on the content and at the topics on the table, for me it is still a mission impossible ahead of us that we can manage this. This will create a lot of damage, especially for the Brits for sure”.

 

A Four Point Plan That Every Company Should Implement Ahead of Brexit

December 2, 2016Posted by PACin Europe

1. Accept that Brexit is a reality
The Prime Minister has committed to it and charged three Brexit supporting MPs to deliver it. The European Commission, European Parliament and European Council have all said there is no going back. The people were given their say and the majority voted to leave. There are those that will try and throw a spanner in the works, but momentum is growing – even if departure is still a little way off. Anger is subsiding (a little) and a few rays of optimism and acceptance among many people about new trade deals are starting to appear.

2. Know your business and how it depends on the EU (or doesn’t)
The regulatory environment in which you operate might fundamentally change. It also may not. While you may be surrounded by uncertainty, you can at least be certain of your own business and where you are exposed to risk.

3. Have a strategy and be prepared
What is your overall strategic aim? Where do you want to be in 5 – 10 – 15 years’ time? Do you need the EU to deliver this or can you survive without? What are all the possible Brexit scenarios and how will they impact your strategy. With politics as it is right now, nothing should be discounted.

4. Do something about it
Negotiations have already started. UK, EU and Member State negotiators from all sides of the table are deciding what their priorities are, which key industries to protect or punish and what can be left to the bottom of the list to be horse-traded away. If your Company or sector relies on the EU regulations or markets as part of your business model, you will need to fight to make sure your industry is not left until last. There are opportunities as well as threats. Now is the time for first mover advantage.

This was written by our Brussels and Berlin based associates, IDA Group. Working with them we can identify your business needs and develop and deliver a strategy to ensure you are fully aware of all developments with Brexit and have input to the Government’s plans as well as to EU institutions and member governments.

More Northern Tory MPs want out than in…

February 25, 2016Posted by PACin Europe

Analysis of Conservative MPs across the North of England shows that more will vote to leave the EU than stay, with Yorkshire backbenchers emphatically against staying.

At the time of writing, according to the ConservativeHome website, there are 149 Tory MPs for Remain, and 124 for Leave.

There has been some analysis of trends amongst those on the ‘payroll’ (Ministers, whips and Parliamentary Private Secretaries) and backbenchers. This shows, not surprisingly given that they have careers, that payroll MPs are heavily in favour of staying in the EU (84 for remain, 30 to leave) whereas more backbenchers, many of whom have given up any hope of a career, want to leave (65 for remain, 94 to leave).

There has also been some limited analysis according to the year of intake showing that the more recently an MP was elected, the more likely they are to be for Remain; again possibly reflecting their aspirations.

Looking at a regional breakdown, analysis shows that unlike the parliamentary party as a whole, more Conservative MPs in the North of England (Yorkshire and North Lincs, North West and North East) support leaving than staying: of the 44 Conservative MPs across the North, 15 want to stay in the EU and 16 want to come out, with 13 yet to declare their stance.

Within this cohort, 19 out of the 44 hold a government position, which at 43% is quite a bit higher than the proportion across the country as a whole with the overall payroll vote accounting for 35% of the Parliamentary party. Is that because Northerners are more able (obviously), or more thrusting (probably that as well)? This makes it all the more surprising that more Northern MPs are for out.

Within the Northern contingent of the payroll, of those that have declared, 12 are for remaining in while just 2 are for leaving and 5 have yet to say. There are no surprises there, but this means that the Northern backbenchers, with 14 being for out and only 3 for in, are a very anti-EU bunch, much more so than the backbenchers as a whole.

The figures are even starker for Yorkshire and North Lincs with only one solitary MP not on the payroll being in favour of Remain, and 8 against him in favour of Leave.

Is it because in Yorkshire they live up (or down) to the stereotype of thinking that nothing good ever comes out of anywhere other than God’s Own County, never mind ‘abroad’? Or is it that as true Tykes they are less likely to accept being told what to do, even by their Prime Minister?

 

*= Member of the ‘payroll’

North East

Remain (1): Guy Opperman – Hexham*

Leave (2): Anne-Marie Trevelyan – Berwick-upon-Tweed; James Wharton – Stockton South*

North West

Remain (8): Jake Berry – Rossendale and Darwen*; Graham Evans – Weaver Vale*; David Morris – Morecombe and Lunesdale*; David Mowat – Warrington South; George Osborne – Tatton*; Antoinette Sandbach – Eddisbury; Edward Timpson – Crewe and Nantwich *; Ben Wallace – Wyre and Preston North*.

Leave (5): Graham Brady – Altrincham and Sale West; Fiona Bruce – Congleton; Nigel Evans – Ribble Valley; David Nuttall – Bury North; William Wragg – Hazel Grove.

Undeclared (8): Chris Green – Bolton West; Seema Kennedy – South Ribble; Paul Maynard – Blackpool North and Cleveleys*; Mark Menzies – Flyde; Mary Robinson – Cheadle; David Rutley – Macclesfield*; John Stevenson – Carlisle; Rory Stewart – Penrith and the Border*.

Yorkshire & North Lincs

Remain (6): Kevin Hollinrake – Thirsk and Malton; Kris Hopkins – Keighley*; Andrew Jones – Harrogate and Knaresborough*; Alec Shelbrooke – Elmet and Rothwell*; Julian Smith – Skipton and Ripon*; Craig Whittaker – Calder Valley*.

Leave (8): Nigel Adams – Selby and Ainsty; Philip Davies – Shipley; David Davis – Haltemprice and Howden; Andrea Jenkyns – Morley and Outwood; Greg Knight – Yorkshire East; Jason McCartney – Colne Valley; Andrew Percy – Brigg and Goole; Martin Vickers – Cleethorpes.

Undeclared (5): Stuart Andrew – Pudsey*; Robert Goodwill – Scarborough and Whitby*; Graham Stuart – Beverley and Holderness; Julian Sturdy – York Outer; Rishi Sunak – Richmond.

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